Changchun High-tech (000661): The first quarter report has a beautiful forecast and it is expected that Jinsai will maintain rapid growth

Changchun High-tech (000661): The first quarter report has a beautiful forecast and it is expected that Jinsai will maintain rapid growth
The company released the first quarter performance forecast, and the net profit in the first quarter of 2019 maintained a rapid growth. The company released the first quarter performance forecast for 2019: the company expects to achieve net profit attributable to its mother.RMB 370,000-3.79 ppm, an increase of 60% -80% over the same period last year.The company’s overall performance exceeded market expectations.The increase in net profit attributable to mothers in the first quarter was mainly due to the increase in the income of the holding key pharmaceutical companies and the excess of the settlement income of the company’s real estate development projects. The growth rate of the subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical Industry may exceed 50%, and the real estate business confirms the revenue contribution performance increase. In terms of business segments, we estimate that the subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical Industry ‘s high growth hormone growth and high-tech real estate business ‘s real estate business revenue will drive one.High-speed growth.Benefiting from the continued high prosperity of growth hormone, we estimate that the core subsidiary Jinsai Pharmaceutical’s 2019Q1 net profit growth rate may exceed 50%.In 2018, the subsidiary Baike Biotech’s net profit growth rate reached 63%. It is estimated that the net profit in the first quarter will continue to grow, and the conservative estimate is that the growth rate will be about 30%.The unrecognized revenue of the real estate business of the subsidiary Gaoxin Real Estate in the first quarter of last year led to a slight extension of the real estate business of the company last year. In the first quarter of this year, the recognized revenue of the real estate business reached a net profit from negative 佛山桑拿网 to positive. It is estimated that the recognized net profit of the real estate business in the first quarter was about 50 million yuan. The company adheres to a differentiated market strategy and continues to increase marketing efforts. The number of new pediatric patients has increased sharply. The hospital’s gradual coverage of medicines has gradually increased, which promotes the continued high growth of Jinsai Pharmaceutical.Phase IV clinical research of long-acting growth hormone products completed in 2018, providing a basis for subsequent high-volume mutations. PDB sample hospital data shows that the company’s growth rate of long-acting growth hormones has exceeded 90% in 2018; at the same time, it is also worthy of potential diversity to regenerate human follicle-stimulating hormones and so on.look forward to. The 合肥夜网 official release plan intends to purchase 30% equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical, and continuously strengthen the core competitiveness. The company issued an announcement to issue shares and convertible bonds to purchase assets and raise supporting funds and related party plans. The transaction target is 30% equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical.If successfully completed, Kinsey will become a wholly-owned subsidiary of the company.The company is expected to further enhance its independent research and development capabilities and continue to strengthen its core competitiveness through the acquisition of the remaining equity in Kinsey.At the same time, the increase in profits will be attributed to the net profit of the mother, and the listed company will further strengthen the management and control of Jinsai, help strengthen the support for Jinsai Pharmaceutical, and enhance the profitability of listed companies. We are optimistic about the company’s continuous and rapid development. We maintain the “Buy” rating for the time being without considering the purchase of minority stakes in Jinsai. We expect the company’s EPS to be 7 in 2019-2021.94, 10.47, 13.46 yuan, corresponding to PE is 36, 27, 21 times.The company’s performance continues to grow rapidly, and the subsequent acquisition of the remaining equity of Jinsai Pharmaceutical is also expected to enhance the company’s core competitiveness and profitability. It is optimistic that the company will continue to develop rapidly as a leader in bioengineering pharmaceuticals, maintaining the company’s “Buy” rating. Risk reminder: slow progress in bidding, long-acting growth hormone, recombinant human follicle stimulating hormone release rate is gradually expected, the purchase of minority stakes in Jinsai is expected to progress

Luolai Life (002293): Interim report results are in line with expectations

Luolai Life (002293): Interim report results are in line with expectations
1H19 results are in line with our expectations. Luolai Life announced the first half of 2019 results: revenue 21.9 ‰, reduced by 0 every year.4%; net profit 2.0.7 million yuan, a decrease of 5 per year.1%, the corresponding return is 0.25 yuan, the performance is in line with expectations.Single quarter revenue in the second quarter of 19 increased by 1.7%, net profit increased by 1.2%, an improvement from 1Q19. In terms of channels, while consolidating the advantages of the first- and second-tier markets, the company actively penetrated into the third- and fourth-tier markets. Until the end of June 2019, the number of terminal stores of various brands was nearly 2,800, which has increased by about 100 year-to-date.In terms of products, the total revenue of standard kits and cores, which contributed about 60%, has improved. The revenue of other products has increased, and sales of pillows have increased by 24.3%.Regionally, the decline in sales in the Northeast and Southwest regions has decreased, while the remaining regions have remained relatively stable. Lexington, a high-end brand, achieved US revenue in the first half of 20194.1 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.4%, with a profit of 10.25 million yuan, a decrease of at least 43%. Lexington and LOVO cover the high-end and mass markets, respectively, and complement the mid-to-high-end positioning of the main brand of Rollei. Financial Review: Decrease in gross profit margin1.7ppt to 43.6%; sales management expense ratio increased by 0.5ppt to 32.0%; cash flow from operating activities changed from a net alternating of RMB 34.06 million to a net inflow of 2.68 ppm, mainly due to digestion of inventory and control of commodity purchases. 深圳桑拿网 Development Trend Business lines are shrinking, focusing on home textiles and franchisee management transformation is still ongoing.With reference to the interim results of companies in the same industry, we believe that the consumption of the home textile industry is still facing the uncertainty of distorted macro environments; it is expected that the relatively leading urban occupation rate, reputation, popularity and emerging social media marketing of Luolai Life will provide it withStronger performance. Earnings forecasts and estimates remain unchanged from 2019 and 2020 earnings forecasts.72 yuan and 0.78 yuan is unchanged, corresponding to an annual increase of 12.3% and 7.6%. Currently corresponds to December 2019/2020.9 times / 11.9 times price-earnings ratio. We maintain our Neutral rating, but as the home textile industry as a whole is relatively sensitive to consumption uncertainty, we lower our target price by 15.1% to 10.14 yuan corresponds to 14.0 times 2019 P / E ratio and 13.0 times 2020 price-earnings ratio, compared with the recent merger of 8.9% upside. The risk inventory is high in risk; the risk of improper M & A integration.

BYD (002594) Annual Report 2018 Review: New Energy Vehicles High-growth New Product Cycle Continues to Advance

BYD (002594) Annual Report 2018 Review: New Energy Vehicles High-growth New Product Cycle Continues to Advance

Company dynamics The company released its 2018 annual report and achieved a total operating income of 1,300.

5.5 billion, an annual increase of 22.

79%, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies.

8 billion, down 31 each year.


Matters commented that the decline in performance narrowed quarter by quarter, the revenue from the automotive business increased by 34%, and the company achieved total operating revenue of 410 in 18Q4.

73 ppm, an increase of 28 in ten years.

43%, a growth rate higher than 17 in the first three quarters.

54%, 22.

60%, 20.

54%, net profit attributable to mothers12.

5.3 billion, down 1 year.

72%, a decrease smaller than -83 in the first three quarters.

09%, -66.

28%, -1.


Initial automotive business achieved revenue of 760.

07 trillion, a growth rate of 34.

23%, including 524 of new energy vehicle revenue.

220,000 yuan, an increase of 34.

21%; the mobile phone and photovoltaic business was affected by the downturn in the downstream market and the growth rate was broken down to achieve revenue of 422.

3 billion, 89.

500,000 yuan, an increase of 4.

34%, 2.

06%; sales income from other main businesses 28.

68 ppm, an increase of 5576.


Due to the decline in gross profit margins of automobiles, photovoltaics and other businesses, the annual gross profit margin in 2016 was 16.

40%, down 2.

61 points.

The reduction in the sales expense ratio improved the period expense ratio by zero.

57pct to 12.


The world’s new energy vehicle sales champion, the new product cycle continues ahead of time. The company adopted the new design language “Dragon Face”, and continued to launch the Yuan EV360, a new generation of Tang DM, a new generation of Song, Qin Pro and other models.Reached 52.

07 thousand vehicles.

The new generation of Tang DM, the new generation of Song DM, the Qin DM and other plug-in models and e5, Yuan EV and other pure electric models can sell new energy models, replacing new energy vehicle sales of 24.

The sales volume of 780,000 vehicles in the first 17 years has more than doubled, and the domestic new energy vehicle market share has been close to 北京桑拿会所 20%, and has been the world’s new energy vehicle sales champion for four consecutive years.

This year, the company will launch a new generation of Yuan EV, a new generation of Tang EV and Song Max DM, and the new product cycle continues. IGBT technology breaks through the overseas technology monopoly, and actively researches and develops SiC MOSFET companies. Since 2005, it has been laying out the IGBT industry. At present, it has become the first domestic auto company to achieve mass production of automotive-grade IGBTs.

At the end of 18, the company released IGBT4.

0 technology, compared with the mainstream IGBT in the market, IGBT4.

0 The current output capacity is increased by 15%, the comprehensive loss is reduced by 20%, and the temperature cycle life is increased by more than 10 times.

At the same time, the 重庆耍耍网 company is deploying SiC MOSFETs developed by the third-generation semiconductor material SiC. In the future, each electric vehicle will gradually install SiC electronic control, and the overall vehicle performance will be improved by 10% on the existing basis.

IGBT is the core component of the electric vehicle drive system, accounting for about 5% of the total vehicle cost, but 90% of the share is monopolized by foreign manufacturers such as Infineon, Siemens, and Mitsubishi.

The release of 0 marks the company’s further competition in the field of new energy vehicles.

The main business of the separated seat business is to promote the continuous open supply system of power battery external supply companies. It will establish a joint venture with Faurecia to separate the seat business, while promoting the external sales of power batteries, expanding customers such as Dongfeng, and signing with Changan Automobile.Strategic cooperation agreement, the two parties will jointly establish a battery factory with an annual output of 10GWh to supply power batteries for Changan.

According to the data of the power battery application branch, the company’s new energy vehicle power battery installed capacity in 2018 was 11.

43GWh, with a market share of 20.

1%, the second in the country.

The external supply of power batteries will effectively promote the company’s power battery business development.

The investment proposal estimates that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company from 2019 to 2021 will be 40.

7.3 billion, 49.

2.5 billion, 58.

5.6 billion yuan, corresponding to an EPS of 1.

49 yuan, 1.

81 yuan, 2.

15 yuan, the corresponding PE is 37 times, 30 times, 25 times, the first coverage, given the “overweight” rating.

Risks indicate that car sales are less than expected; risks from changes in industry policies.

Hualan Biological (002007): Flu vaccine in line with expectations has entered demand season

Hualan Biological (002007): Flu vaccine in line with expectations has entered demand season

Event: Third Quarterly Report: Revenue 26.

3.8 billion, a previous growth rate of 29.

6%, net profit 9.

6.4 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 26.

9%, net operating cash flow 7.

620,000 yuan, EPS 0.

69 yuan; of which Q3 income of 12 in the third quarter.

35 ‰, 48 per year.

1%, net profit 4.

5.7 billion, 49 per year.

0%, performance is in line with expectations.

Opinion: Performance is in line with expectations, and demand for flu vaccine is strong.

Revenue in the first three quarters of 19 was 26.

3.8 billion, a previous growth rate of 29.

6%, net profit 9.

6.4 billion, a year-on-year growth rate of 26.


By business segment, the vaccine business is expected to contribute equity net profit1.


500 million US dollars, of which more than 6 million flu vaccine sales, the annual vaccine sector is expected to contribute 3.

Net profit of about 6 billion, and deposits may exceed expectations; the blood products sector contributed 7.

Net profit of 500-800 million yuan, an annual growth rate of about 10%, annual blood products are expected to contribute over 1 billion net profits, an annual growth rate of about 10%, the net profit of Q3 blood products in a single quarter increased slightly from the same period last year, mainly last yearThe high base in the third quarter, as well as the strengthening of academic promotion, resulted in an increase 佛山桑拿网 in the sales expense ratio of blood products in 19 years.

In the field of research projects covering monoclonal antibodies and vaccines, the layout of the large biological industry has steadily advanced.

The company established the Hualan Biological Vaccine and Hualan Genetic Engineering Layout Vaccine and Monoclonal Antibody business to realize the big biological layout of blood products, vaccines, and biopharmaceuticals, and cultivated new profit growth points for the company.

1) mAb projects: Trastuzumab, bevacizumab, rituximab, and adalimumab have been approved for clinical use, of which trastuzumab, bevacizumab, and rituximab are in clinical practice 3 Phase; Panitumumab, Denitumab, and Ipilimumab were approved for clinical use.

2) Vaccine project: adsorption tetanus vaccine, 10μg (pediatric dosage form) regenerate hepatitis B vaccine, 20μg recombinant hepatitis B vaccine, freeze-dried second-generation mad vaccine report is under approval, and it is expected to be approved in 20 years, AC combined with clinical phase 3,H7N9 influenza vaccine phase 2 clinical.

Profit forecast and investment suggestions: The company’s overall operation is stable, and the tetravalent influenza vaccine has entered a period of strong demand. It is estimated that the net profit for 19-21 years will be 14 respectively.



200 million, a previous growth rate of 23.

7% / 16.

4% / 11.

At 2%, blood products grew steadily, the flu vaccine leader was solid, and the company’s medium- and long-term development momentum was solid.

The layout of blood products, vaccines, and biopharmaceuticals. If a breakthrough is made in future biopharmaceuticals, the medium-term market value is expected to exceed 70 billion yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Sales are lower than expected, new product replacements are approved as scheduled, industry black swan incident, etc.

Zhongnan Construction (000961) April 2019 Comments: Sales continue to pick up, soil storage structure optimization

Zhongnan Construction (000961) April 无锡桑拿网 2019 Comments: Sales continue to pick up, soil storage structure optimization

Key points of the report: From January to April 2019, the company’s cumulative contracted sales amount was approximately 462.

800 million US dollars, an annual increase of 29%, the cumulative sales area is about 378.

0 million square meters, an increase of 35%.

Incident review The gradual sales growth continued to pick up.

In April 2019, the company realized contract sales of about 154.

1 trillion US dollars, an annual growth of 39%; sales area is about 127.

90,000 square meters, an increase of 47% in ten years.

The cumulative contracted sales amount from January to April 2019 is approximately 462.

800 million US dollars, an annual increase of 29%, the cumulative sales area is about 378.

0 million square meters, an increase of 35%.

Sales continue to pick up since March.

The cost of land has decreased, and the proportion of land acquisition in second-tier cities has continued to increase.

In April 2019, the company’s land acquisition area was 36.

450,000 square meters, the total price is 15.

2.5 billion, the land area is Zhenjiang City and Huaian City, Jiangsu Province.

From January to April 2019, the company gradually acquired land for 229.

230,000 square meters, with a total land price of 147.

100,000 yuan, the average price of land is 6417 yuan / square meter.

From January to April 2019, the company’s cumulative average sales price was 12,243 yuan / square meter, and the ratio of converted land acquisition prices to the cumulative average sales price was 52.

41%, a decrease from January to March 2019, and the cost of land is further reasonable.

From January to April 2019, the company continued to expand its land acquisition efforts in second-tier cities. The proportion of land acquisition in second-tier cities increased from 37 in 2018.

0% increased to 49.

8%, the soil storage structure continues to be optimized.

The growth of gross profit margin picked up, and the performance in the first quarter continued to grow.

Affected by the decline in the completion of the construction sector, the company achieved operating income of 84 in the first quarter of 2019.

71 ppm, a decrease of 25 per year.


The company achieved net profit attributable to mothers in the first quarter4.

820,000 yuan, an increase of 27 in ten years.


There are two main reasons for the performance increase: First, the company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin in the first quarter of 2019 were 24.

34%, 6.

19%, an increase of 4 over the same period last year.

55 points, 2.

23pct; Second, the pace of land business settlement has steadily improved, and the company recognized development income 62 in the first quarter.

600 million, an annual increase of 23%.

Investment suggestion: Deeply plow the Yangtze River Delta region and maintain a “Buy” rating.

Based on the Yangtze River Delta, the company achieved steady growth in sales and continued to optimize its urban layout.With the continuous advancement of the urbanization construction process and the gradual release of restrictions on settlement, the company strives to fully benefit.

It is expected that in 2019 and 2020, the EPS will be approximately 1.

10 yuan, 1.

89 yuan, corresponding to the current sustainable PE is 7 respectively.

3 times, 4.

3x, maintain “Buy” rating.

Risk Warning: 1.

Uncertainty in the liquidity environment; 2.

There may be uncertainties in the adjustment policies of the real estate business.

Goldwind Technology (002202) In-Depth Report: The Value of Wind Power Is Reassessed

Goldwind Technology (002202) In-Depth Report: The Value of Wind Power Is Reassessed
The performance of wind power generation is sustainable and strong, parity is coming, and the cash flow quality will be improved. It can be analogized to hydropower: compared with wind turbine equipment, power generation enterprises’ income, profits and cash flow are more stable.Only two provinces, Gansu and Xinjiang, are red forecast areas in 2019, and the abandonment rate in the first three quarters of the country will drop by 3%.5 points to 4.2%, the problem of abandoning wind power in the northern region has improved significantly, and market-based bidding has also eased concerns about the consumption of renewable energy.At present, some arrears are added, and the ratio of net cash flow to net assets of wind power companies operating can still reach zero.23-0.3. The net asset payback period is only 4 years, which is comparable to hydropower.The transition from wind power to full parity in 2019-2021, the proportion of new projects to supplement will shrink, the cash flow quality of wind power companies will further improve, and wind power assets will be fully comparable to high-quality hydropower assets in the future. Goldwind has steadily promoted the construction of wind farms and extended its business to the entire industry chain: Goldwind has maintained its stability in the industry’s downward cycle from 2016 to 2018 by increasing its power generation business. In the first three quarters of 2019, new equity installed capacity of 195MW was added.Yingying Wind Farm’s equity installed capacity is 4,596MW, and the power generation capacity is 5,923GWh. The wind power generation business continues to rise steadily.Through self-operated wind farms, Goldwind has accumulated accumulated operation and maintenance experience, combined with intelligent operation and maintenance systems, to successfully develop the service market after wind power.In 2018, there have been 6.year.97GW, of which 2.31GW is a non-gold fan set.At the same time, related businesses such as front-end site design and consulting EPC have developed smoothly. Using the technical advantages of the wind power field, the business field has been extended to the entire industry chain to 杭州桑拿 increase profitability. The cash flow model estimates that the IRR of Goldwind ‘s domestic wind farms is as high as 29%, and the overall power generation business is estimated at 30.5 billion. The market generally pays little attention to Goldwind ‘s power generation business. It is simply measured by PE and cannot reflect its true value.The wind power project budget and investment amount in the project, determine the project capacity and equity ratio according to the bidding information, and combine the wind power utilization hours of each province where the project is located to construct a wind farm cash flow and rate of return model.The calculation results show that the total NPV of national projects is 303.94 ppm with a PI of 3.0, the internal rate of return is as high as 29%, and the rate of return is very considerable. It is estimated to be 249 by DCF.6.8 billion yuan.Overseas projects are estimated at 2 PB 55.23 trillion, the total power generation business is estimated at 304.9.1 billion. In 19-20, wind power was clearly installed, prices and gross margins rebounded, and the volume and price of wind turbine business went up: the price of wind turbines hit the bottom of 3100 yuan / kW in the third quarter of 2018.In the third quarterly report, the company’s orders in hand reached another 23.5GW, in order to prepare for 20 years of rush installation, the company actively communicated with the upstream to reserve capacity and increased some stocks. The three-quarter reported inventory increased by 86% to 100 per year.72 ppm, the company’s fan business will enter the upward cycle of both volume and price in 20 years. Investment suggestion: We raise the company’s profit forecast. It is estimated that the EPS in 19-21 will be 0.67, yuan, give 15 times PE, raise the company’s 2020 target price to 17.4 yuan, continue to give “strongly recommended” investment rating. Risk warning: major changes in wind power policy, the company’s wind turbine order delivery is less than expected; wind turbine prices fell more than expected.

Tianwei Food (603317): Actively develop dual products and dual channels to add flavor to life

Tianwei Food (603317): Actively develop dual products and dual channels to add flavor to life

Report Summary: The company’s compound condiment industry has a broad space and rapid growth, which is the future development direction of condiments.

The market size of Chinese compound condiments increased from RMB 5.57 million in 2013 to RMB 109.1 billion in 2017, with an annual compound production capacity of 15.


However, China still focuses on the consumption of single condiments such as soy sauce and vinegar, and the proportion of compound condiments is still very small, only 26%, which is far lower than the proportion of consumption of more than 59% in other countries, which has broad development space.

From the perspective of demand, the 天津夜网 restaurant chain’s homemade compound seasonings are inefficient and cannot be standardized, and catering companies are purchasing more and more compound seasonings.

As for the family, the demand for younger consumer groups is increasing, and the demand for convenience and speed has become stronger and stronger, and the future growth rate of compound condiments is considerable.

According to Frost & Sullivan’s forecast, from 2015 to 2020, the growth rate of Chinese-style compound seasonings will be increased by 16.

9% compound annual average; followed by hot pot seasoning, compound strength will reach 15%.

These are the two major business segments in which Tianwei Food is involved. They are categories that can achieve a large single product strategy and can generate scale advantages.

Tianwei Food is at the forefront 杭州桑拿网 of the industry, ranking third in the hot pot bottoms industry and No. 1 in Sichuan cuisine seasonings. It already has high-quality product capabilities, C-end channel capabilities, and upstream and downstream management capabilities.

In the end, the company keeps launching new products and launching 1-5 new products every year. Half of the revenue increase comes from new product sales.

But compared to the previous, the company’s brand power still needs to be strengthened.

The company strictly controls the procurement process, strengthens supplier management, and solves the problems of high proportion of raw materials, complex procurement, and food safety management.

At the same time, the company’s marketing channels are becoming more basic, which helps the company understand the market.

In addition, the company will focus on developing B-end meal tuning customers in the future, which will have an impact on the company’s overall gross profit margin, but the maintenance costs will be low in the future.

Use of raised funds: The company publicly issued no more than 41.32 million ordinary shares of RMB. The raised funds were used for the expansion and expansion of the home production base, the expansion and expansion of the Shuangliu production base, the marketing service system and the comprehensive supporting construction of information technology. The main purpose was to expand hot pot.The production capacity of base materials and meals enhances the quality of service and enhances the company’s industry advantage.

Earnings forecast: EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

83, 0.

98, 1.

2 yuan, corresponding to PE is 55 times, 46 times, 38 times, the first coverage, given “overweight” rating.

Risk warning: food safety issues; changes in raw material prices

Daqin Railway (601006): Poor Thermal Power Demand Shifts in June

Daqin Railway (601006): Poor Thermal Power Demand Shifts in June

In June 2019, the average daily traffic volume of the Daqin Line was 119.

40 is the lowest, which decreases by 7 every year.

78% On July 8, the company released monthly data announcement: In June 2019, the Daqin Line completed the shipment of 3582, a decrease of 7.

78%, with an average daily traffic volume of 119.

40 nominal, daily average heavy truck 82.

9 columns; From January to June 2019, the Daqin Line gradually completed the title of freight volume 21820, with an average daily volume of 120.

55 at least, a decrease of 3 per year.


We believe that the traffic fluctuations in June were mainly due to: 1) poor demand for thermal power in the southeast coast; 2) destocking at ports and replacement of factory supply inventory.

Lowered profit forecast and lowered target price to 9.


60 dollars.

The daily consumption of the downstream factories is low, the inventory is high, and the destocking of the mid-stream port makes the demand for coal transportation in June less than June, and the daily average volume of the Daqin Line is only 119.

Initially, 40 is reduced by 7 per year.

78%, a decrease of 7 from the previous quarter.


Looking back at the average daily traffic volume in 2018, except for April and October, which were less than 120 digits affected by maintenance, all other months exceeded 120 digits.

We believe that the main reasons for the fluctuation in the traffic volume in June are: 1) poor thermal power demand and total daily coal consumption; 2) port destocking; 3) factory inventory increase and replacement of inventory replacement.

In June, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 62.

59 for the first time, a decrease of 10 per year.

13%; Qinhuangdao inventory decreased from 640 at the beginning of the month to 527 exchange at the end of the month; coal inventory at power plants remained high, and the inventory of the six major power generation groups rose slightly from 1783 at the beginning of the month to 1789 at the end of the month.

Looking forward to July, the peak power consumption in summer overlaid by Qingang low inventory, the Daqin line traffic may return to high levels in early July, and the daily power consumption of downstream power plants is still close to the level.

On July 1-8, the daily coal consumption of the six major power plants decreased by 18 四川耍耍网 from last year.


On July 8, the inventory of the six major plants was in the 1846 period, which was 306 higher than the same period last year. The coal availability of the six major power plants reached 31 days, which was 11 days higher than the same period last year. The inventory at Qingang was at least 574, which was lower than last year’s 102.

On July 1-8, the average daily transfer volume of the Qingang-Hong Kong Railway increased by 4 from June.


We believe that the potential replenishment of the power plant’s active replenishment inventory in July is based on the high level of factory coal inventory.

Looking forward to July, we believe that 1) the demand for coal transportation is expected to increase as it enters the peak summer electricity consumption; 2) due to the reduction of Qingang inventory, the daily 南京夜网 average transportation volume of the Daqin Line, which mainly transports coal from Changsha Association, is expected to rise 125Left and right.

The competition pressure on the line is gradually showing. Based on the high yield, the “Overweight” rating is still maintained. Xi’an Bureau and Huhe Bureau have successively reduced the freight rate in 2Q19. The Menghua Line is expected to open in 4Q19, and the competition pressure of Sanxi Coal Outward Transportation is gradually showing.

We revise down the Da Qin line traffic assumptions and expect the traffic volume to be 4 in 2019/2020/2021.



5.1 billion tons of 100 million tons (previously 4.



5.1 billion tons).

Therefore, the profit forecast is lowered, and the net profit attributable to mothers is expected to be 142 in 2019-2021.55, 145.

88, 144.

7.9 billion (previous 144.

70, 146.

84, 145.

7.8 billion).

Based on 9.


0x2019PE remains unchanged, lowering target price to 9.


60 dollars.

Assume that the dividend rate for 2019-2021 is the same as for 2018 (49.

06%), the company’s dividend yield is expected to be 5.

89%, 6.

03%, 5.

98% (based on the closing price of 7/8/2019).

Maintain the “overweight” rating.

Risk reminder: The economy is going down fast, the railway transportation capacity of Mongolia, Hebei and Japan is accelerated, and the highway governance is relaxed.

Shi Dashenghua (603026) Series Depth: How to Look at the Space and Persistence of EC Quotes

Shi Dashenghua (603026) Series Depth: How to Look at the Space and Persistence of EC Quotes
In the depth of the C industry on April 1st, “[Northeast New Energy Vehicle]Depth of the vinyl carbonate industry: EC or will become the second crazy 6F”, we took the lead in prompting the EC market at that time, the EC price was 1.20,000 / ton (a record high at the time), quoted at the beginning of June 2.50,000 / ton, an increase of more than 100% in two months.At this point in time, this report hopes to answer the two most concerned issues in the market: First, how to look at the space and sustainability of EC price increases: 1) The core of EC price increases lies in funding seeking.As cobalt just needs, short-term supply 6.9 VS demand 6.5-9 Gazette. 2) EC supply will be tighter in the second half of the year.Historically, the off-peak season of tungsten is obvious; this year’s rush installation is not strong. Under many stimulus policies, the H2 boom is somewhat H1. 3) The probability of EC skyrocketing is higher.Industrial chain perspective: Coal companies have fully benefited from C’s price increase, and they have not even resisted, and will even continue to boost prices in the peak season; battery manufacturers have limited cost increases.Internal industry perspective: Price increases do not affect customer relationships; after the price increases exceed a certain threshold, new capital will try to enter, so the price is no longer controlled because of fear of potential entrants. 4) The EC boom guarantee will last until the end of 20, with a high probability of 21 years and beyond.EIA has become invisible door biology; in terms of technology alone, it may be difficult for new entrants to digest it in a short time, especially refining it into battery-level products; it will take time for new capacity to enter the mainstream 天津夜网 supply chain system. Second, the elasticity brought by the EC price increase to Shi Dashenghua: 1) The market is fully aware of price elasticity.Press 19 years 2.6 If the maximum throughput is estimated to skyrocket to 60,000, the annualized profit will be 1.22 billion. 2) The amount of elasticity is still insufficient.The company’s existing heat is in the C reaction device, and there is still excess capacity for refining. We judge that in the second half of the year, there will be refined products and even self-built new reaction capacities.The 21-year European Economic Community project is expected to land and guarantee profits. 3) EC’s estimated flexibility for the company.EC, as a “cyclical product in growing varieties”, is better than Shantong Chemicals, which has a premium in the classification of cyclical varieties. 北京夜生活网 Profit forecast and rating: DMC7K + EC2W, 19-year profit 6.700 million, corresponding to PE10X.Considering the price increase, the company’s 19-year performance cap is unknown.Strongly bullish, recommend “buy”! Risk warning: New energy car sales are less than expected

CICC Gold (600489): 2018 and 2019 first quarter results fall, plans to put in high-quality copper mine assets

CICC Gold (600489): 2018 and 2019 first quarter results fall, plans to put in high-quality copper mine assets

The performance of 2018 and the first quarter of 2019 declined, and the company intending to place high-quality copper mine assets announced the 2018 annual report and the first quarter of 2019, and the performance gradually declined.

On April 27, 2019, the company announced the 2018 annual report and the 2019 first quarter report.

In 2018, operating income was 344.

500 million, an increase of 4 every year.

63%; net profit attributable to mother 1.

96 trillion, down 32 a year.

73%; deduct non-attributed net profit1.

29 trillion, down 54 a year.

72%; basic profit income is 0.

06 yuan / share, a year-on-year decrease of 25%; the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0 per 10 shares.

20 yuan (including tax).

The company achieved gross profit of 35 in 2018.

8.4 billion, of which gold business achieved gross profit19.

7.2 billion, accounting for 55%; copper business achieved gross profit12.

1.7 billion, accounting for 34%.

  The performance of the first quarter of 2019 has temporarily dropped, and net profit attributable to mothers has decreased by 43 year-on-year.


In the first quarter of 2019, it realized revenue of 79 trillion, with an annual increase of 12.

58%; net profit attributable to mother 0.

33 ppm, a decrease of 43 per year.

74%; net profit without deduction to mother 0.

37 trillion, down -0 in one year.

87%; basic profit return is 0.

01 yuan / share, down 50% in the future.

  The decline in 2018 results was mainly due to the decline in gold production and the increase in expenses during the period.

First, national environmental protection policies have affected some mine production, and gold production has declined.

In 2018, affected by environmental protection policies, the company produced refined gold72.

98 tons, mineral gold 24.

36 tons, smelting gold 38.

30 tons, at least -17.

64%, -4.

06%, -11.


  The second is the increase in selling expenses.

Selling expenses for 2018 1.

3.9 billion, an annual increase of 53.

86%, mainly due to the increase in sales of electrolytic copper production, resulting in increased transportation costs.

The third is the increase in financial costs.Financial expenses for 2018 7.

100 million, an increase of 12 every year.

85%, mainly due to increased exchange losses.

  The first quarter of 2019’s performance fell, mainly due to the decline in gold production.

The average domestic gold price in the first quarter of 2019 was about 286.

5 yuan / g, +4 for ten years.

8%, +4 from the previous quarter.

1%, the average price of Comex gold is 1305.

5 USD / GBP, at least -1.

9%, + 6% from the previous month.

Although the price of gold rose month-on-month, some of the company’s mines were affected by environmental protection policies and the output of gold decreased, resulting in a decrease in net profit.

  In 2018, the company’s second-phase project of the Central Plains Smelter reached the production target ahead of schedule, adding 15 inverters for electrolytic copper capacity, and a total capacity of 37 tons.

In 2018, the company produced mine copper1.

80 anion, electrolytic copper 32.

08 for the first time, at least -5.

46%, 71.


The second-phase project of Zhongyuan Smelter reached the production capacity, which improved the company’s revenue capacity.

  The company has great potential for increasing reserves of gold resources, and the Group’s injection of high-quality assets is expected to be strong.

First, in 2018, the company continued to promote the increase of reserves companies, adding new gold resources24.

6 tons.

As of the end of 2018, the company had reserves of 496 gold and metal resources.

4 tons.

Second, the strength of China Gold Group is gradual, and 合肥夜网 listed companies are expected to obtain continuous resource thickening.

China National Gold Group has about 48 mining companies nationwide, of which 42 are mainly gold producers.

As of the end of 2017, the Group maintained 1,907 tons of gold resources (including the resources of CICC Gold and CICC Gold International).

According to the group announcement, according to the non-competitive commitments made by the group, the company is the sole platform for the group’s internal gold resource business. In the future, a large amount of gold resources within the group is expected to continue to be injected into listed companies, and the company is expected to obtain more continuous resource thickening.

  A breakthrough was made in the debt-to-equity swap of the Central Plains Smelter. Subsequent financial expenses are expected to be reduced and profitability improved.

Zhongyuan Smelter is the second-ranked subsidiary of the company. On January 7, 2018, the company’s net profit was 1.

39 trillion, but the resistance budget is 146.

9 trillion, asset-liability ratio as high as 87%, higher financial costs.

According to the company’s announcement, the company’s proposed investor has converted debts into shares of the Central Plains Smelter, and has obtained investor capital of USD 4.6 billion. This merger of debt-to-equity work has made major breakthroughs. The company’s long-term borrowing in 2018.

7 trillion, a decrease of 46 a year.

63%, the company’s current asset-liability ratio is from 61.

26% dropped to 49.

69%, subsequent financial expenses are expected to decrease, improving profitability.

  It is planned to add high-quality copper and molybdenum assets to major shareholders, which will significantly increase performance.

According to the company’s announcement, the company plans to purchase 90% of Inner Mongolia Mining, a major shareholder, for 4.5 billion shares.

The company currently produces about 8 additives per year for copper metal.

Inner Mongolia Mining’s net profit on January 7, 2018 5.US $ 7.9 billion, while CICC Gold’s net profit for the first half of 2018 was 2.

According to our calculations, according to our calculations, the Inner Mongolia Mining acquired this time is calculated based on the January-July 2018 performance, and the annualized PE is less than 10 times. If the acquisition is completed, it will significantly increase the company’s performance.

  Investment suggestion: “Buy-A” investment rating, 6-month target price of 9 yuan.

Taking into account the loose margins of global borders, the price of gold is expected to strengthen. Under the assumption that the average price of gold in 2019-2021 is 280, 300, and 330 yuan, the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 is expected to be 0.

07 yuan, 0.

13 yuan and 0.

21 yuan.

Considering that the company’s mineral gold performance is highly flexible and the Group’s injection expectations are strong, the copyright must be estimated at a premium and given a 9-month target price of 9 yuan, which is equivalent to the company’s dynamic price-earnings ratio of 70x in 2020.

  Risk reminders: 1) The company’s gold output is lower than expected; 2) The Fed raises interest rates more than expected, and the gold price goes down.