Daqin Railway (601006): Poor Thermal Power Demand Shifts in June
In June 2019, the average daily traffic volume of the Daqin Line was 119.
40 is the lowest, which decreases by 7 every year.
78% On July 8, the company released monthly data announcement: In June 2019, the Daqin Line completed the shipment of 3582, a decrease of 7.
78%, with an average daily traffic volume of 119.
40 nominal, daily average heavy truck 82.
9 columns; From January to June 2019, the Daqin Line gradually completed the title of freight volume 21820, with an average daily volume of 120.
55 at least, a decrease of 3 per year.
We believe that the traffic fluctuations in June were mainly due to: 1) poor demand for thermal power in the southeast coast; 2) destocking at ports and replacement of factory supply inventory.
Lowered profit forecast and lowered target price to 9.
The daily consumption of the downstream factories is low, the inventory is high, and the destocking of the mid-stream port makes the demand for coal transportation in June less than June, and the daily average volume of the Daqin Line is only 119.
Initially, 40 is reduced by 7 per year.
78%, a decrease of 7 from the previous quarter.
Looking back at the average daily traffic volume in 2018, except for April and October, which were less than 120 digits affected by maintenance, all other months exceeded 120 digits.
We believe that the main reasons for the fluctuation in the traffic volume in June are: 1) poor thermal power demand and total daily coal consumption; 2) port destocking; 3) factory inventory increase and replacement of inventory replacement.
In June, the average daily coal consumption of the six major power generation groups was 62.
59 for the first time, a decrease of 10 per year.
13%; Qinhuangdao inventory decreased from 640 at the beginning of the month to 527 exchange at the end of the month; coal inventory at power plants remained high, and the inventory of the six major power generation groups rose slightly from 1783 at the beginning of the month to 1789 at the end of the month.
Looking forward to July, the peak power consumption in summer overlaid by Qingang low inventory, the Daqin line traffic may return to high levels in early July, and the daily power consumption of downstream power plants is still close to the level.
On July 1-8, the daily coal consumption of the six major power plants decreased by 18 四川耍耍网 from last year.
On July 8, the inventory of the six major plants was in the 1846 period, which was 306 higher than the same period last year. The coal availability of the six major power plants reached 31 days, which was 11 days higher than the same period last year. The inventory at Qingang was at least 574, which was lower than last year’s 102.
On July 1-8, the average daily transfer volume of the Qingang-Hong Kong Railway increased by 4 from June.
We believe that the potential replenishment of the power plant’s active replenishment inventory in July is based on the high level of factory coal inventory.
Looking forward to July, we believe that 1) the demand for coal transportation is expected to increase as it enters the peak summer electricity consumption; 2) due to the reduction of Qingang inventory, the daily 南京夜网 average transportation volume of the Daqin Line, which mainly transports coal from Changsha Association, is expected to rise 125Left and right.
The competition pressure on the line is gradually showing. Based on the high yield, the “Overweight” rating is still maintained. Xi’an Bureau and Huhe Bureau have successively reduced the freight rate in 2Q19. The Menghua Line is expected to open in 4Q19, and the competition pressure of Sanxi Coal Outward Transportation is gradually showing.
We revise down the Da Qin line traffic assumptions and expect the traffic volume to be 4 in 2019/2020/2021.
5.1 billion tons of 100 million tons (previously 4.
5.1 billion tons).
Therefore, the profit forecast is lowered, and the net profit attributable to mothers is expected to be 142 in 2019-2021.55, 145.
7.9 billion (previous 144.
Based on 9.
0x2019PE remains unchanged, lowering target price to 9.
Assume that the dividend rate for 2019-2021 is the same as for 2018 (49.
06%), the company’s dividend yield is expected to be 5.
98% (based on the closing price of 7/8/2019).
Maintain the “overweight” rating.
Risk reminder: The economy is going down fast, the railway transportation capacity of Mongolia, Hebei and Japan is accelerated, and the highway governance is relaxed.